This year, global trade is projected to be a breeding ground for protectionism and regional tariffs, and employing smart strategies for international trade can be an advantage for many brands.
To explore what changes will affect trade behavior this year, Maersk worked with industry experts to provide a list of trends to watch out for:
What are the next expected trends for customs clearance in 2025?
New tariffs:
2025 will bring significantly new regulations and tariffs. By setting them, some governments are sending shockwaves, promising to raise tariffs by 30% to 60% for some exporting countries and, as a result, many economies around the world are preparing for protectionism.
In addition to simply increasing the direct cost of doing business, tariffs will also have a secondary effect, as these tough trade policies will add some complications around customs and border trade processes. While in the past tariffs have generally been low and broadly harmonized, it appears that by 2025 customs may be entering a scenario where some countries may impose unilateral actions targeting the trade of specific countries.
“Companies are already trying to understand how these new tariffs and upcoming regulations will affect them, in terms of revenue, costs and profit margins” – William Petty, Global Product Development Manager for Custom Consulting Services at Maersk.
Law enforcement agencies are likely to be more active in checking whether certain products actually come from the country declared by the importer.
One thing is for sure: in 2025 companies will have to seek support from logistics providers to see these regulations as a possibility of opportunity and not just obstacles.
2. Customs and commercial data:
Between regional wars, protective customs regulations and tariffs coming into effect, greater visibility and timely data will be necessary.
Relevant supply chain information and customs data will be the currency of trade by 2025. The digitization of processes will only increase, with a focus on owning the data itself, either internally or through a trusted partner, to manage it properly.
Businesses will need to take control of their own data flows to drive resilience to disruptions and black swans.
There will be a lot of positive movement around legal frameworks to accept digital signatures, and more will be developed to channel data to be used strategically.
Trade Compliance is becoming the license to play, while trade and customs data is the new currency of global trade.
“You must own your data and carefully select who handles it for you” – Lars Karlsson, Head of Customs & Global Trade Consulting Services at Maersk.
3. Trust:
Due to the aforementioned events, attention will be paid to trust between stakeholders dealing with logistics and customs. Complications arising from the additional controls are likely to increase queues and delays at ports around the world. Merchants will need to demonstrate their good compliance history; therefore, confidence will reside in the data. Key to this will be new certifications indicating that a company is a trusted trader or authorized economic operator.
4. Passports for goods:
One of the key ways to achieve this trust will be the institution of “digital passports for goods”, which provide identification and therefore a trusted status for the goods being transported.
The data collected from merchants, included in the packages mentioned above, will also be present in these digital passports and will be provided to governments to create a trusted value chain.
During 2025, this initiative will be powered and supported by artificial intelligence (AI) for trade and customs to certify compliance, classify goods correctly, and demonstrate that brands comply with regulations, penalties, and duties and taxes paid through intelligent digital trade corridors (iDTC).
Another concept will be “trust packages” that brands can put together with the help of other trusted stakeholders, such as expert logistics providers. They will work in partnership with governments to build smart digital trade corridors, where companies will be able to voluntarily provide the government, up to two to three weeks prior to the arrival of a ship and its containers, with a “trust package of necessary data” that enables early risk management and customs clearance, reducing arrival delays and providing customers with a more reliable product. These smart methods will also help companies get a kind of “fast track” at the borders.
5. Artificial Intelligence (AI):
Customs processes in international trade are expected to be increasingly driven by technological and regulatory developments. Wider use of digital customs software, driven by AI, will accelerate trends that will make all of the above trends a faster reality.
“Taking ownership and control of data and documents through digitization is a great opportunity to mitigate risks, liabilities and delays.” Maersk
Automation and digitization will continue to play central roles, with systems such as AI-driven document verification and automated customs declarations significantly reducing border processing times. AI can be used extensively to avoid risks, systems and safety programs.
Real-time tracking and blockchain integration will improve transparency and security, especially in cross-border logistics. Predictive analytics and machine learning will be used to assess risks in shipments, allowing faster clearance of low-risk goods and focusing inspection on high-risk goods.
What’s ahead for customs in 2025?
Supply chain resilience will be a priority in light of conflicts, upcoming trade measures and potential retaliatory trade wars.
Companies will look for secure trade, procurement options and alternative forms of sourcing, and seek the help of trade professionals.
Customs will be used as a trade strategy and will become an important high-level discussion point for navigating the increasingly complex waters of international trade, fostering trade facilitation and generating GDP growth in many countries.
The right logistics partner will be able to assist and provide comprehensive support with these projected changes and complexities by 2025. Be prepared!
Source: Maersk Insights.